Avispa Fukuoka
Urawa Red Diamonds
The model leans Urawa Red Diamonds at 39%. Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka 0.76, Urawa Red Diamonds 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%. Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 6; Urawa Red Diamonds won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avispa Fukuoka | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Urawa Red Diamonds | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Urawa Red Diamonds. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.1%
- 0–015.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Urawa Red Diamonds −0.5| Avispa Fukuoka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.