JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
The model leans JEF United Chiba at 37%. Expected goals: JEF United Chiba 1.20, Avispa Fukuoka 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. JEF United Chiba won 0 of their last 6; Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1JEF United Chiba | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Avispa Fukuoka | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: JEF United Chiba. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: JEF United Chiba 0| JEF United Chiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.