Kashima Antlers
Avispa Fukuoka
The model leans Kashima Antlers at 60%. Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 1.64, Avispa Fukuoka 0.39. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 73%. Kashima Antlers won 5 of their last 6; Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kashima Antlers | 68% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Avispa Fukuoka | 7% | 13.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashima Antlers. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 1–021.6%
- 2–017.7%
- 0–013.2%
- 3–09.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kashima Antlers −1| Kashima Antlers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 23% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.