Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Kashima Antlers

32
Won

Avispa Fukuoka

The model leans Kashima Antlers at 60%. Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 1.64, Avispa Fukuoka 0.39. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 73%. Kashima Antlers won 5 of their last 6; Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kashima Antlers68%1.48
XDraw25%4.04
2Avispa Fukuoka7%13.35

Pick: Kashima Antlers. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.39
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes26%No74%

Most likely scores

  • 1021.6%
  • 2017.7%
  • 0013.2%
  • 309.6%
  • 118.4%
  • 216.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kashima Antlers −1
Kashima Antlers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.539%61%
-139%29%31%
-0.569%31%
069%23%8%
+0.592%8%
+192%7%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.