Tokyo Verdy
Kashima Antlers
The model leans Kashima Antlers at 51%. Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy 0.45, Kashima Antlers 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%. Tokyo Verdy won 1 of their last 6; Kashima Antlers won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tokyo Verdy | 12% | 8.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Kashima Antlers | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashima Antlers. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.45 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 0–122.6%
- 0–017.5%
- 0–214.6%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kashima Antlers −1| Tokyo Verdy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 10% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 29% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.