Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Tokyo Verdy

02
Won

Kashima Antlers

The model leans Kashima Antlers at 51%. Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy 0.45, Kashima Antlers 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%. Tokyo Verdy won 1 of their last 6; Kashima Antlers won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tokyo Verdy12%8.45
XDraw31%3.20
2Kashima Antlers57%1.76

Pick: Kashima Antlers. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.45 – 1.29
LineOverUnder
1.552%48%
2.525%75%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes26%No74%

Most likely scores

  • 0122.6%
  • 0017.5%
  • 0214.6%
  • 1110.2%
  • 107.9%
  • 126.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kashima Antlers −1
Tokyo Verdy lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.52%98%
-12%10%87%
-0.513%87%
013%29%58%
+0.542%58%
+142%30%28%
+1.572%28%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.