Mito Hollyhock
Kashima Antlers
The model leans Kashima Antlers at 57%. Expected goals: Mito Hollyhock 0.53, Kashima Antlers 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 66%. Mito Hollyhock won 2 of their last 6; Kashima Antlers won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mito Hollyhock | 10% | 9.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Kashima Antlers | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashima Antlers. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.53 – 1.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.4%
- 0–215.6%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–38.8%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kashima Antlers −1| Mito Hollyhock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 9% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 23% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.