Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
The model leans Machida Zelvia at 50%. Expected goals: Mito Hollyhock 0.71, Machida Zelvia 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. Mito Hollyhock won 2 of their last 6; Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mito Hollyhock | 17% | 5.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Machida Zelvia | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Machida Zelvia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.71 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.5%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Machida Zelvia −0.5| Mito Hollyhock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.