JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
The model leans Machida Zelvia at 50%. Expected goals: JEF United Chiba 0.78, Machida Zelvia 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. JEF United Chiba won 0 of their last 6; Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1JEF United Chiba | 19% | 5.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Machida Zelvia | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Machida Zelvia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.2%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Machida Zelvia −0.5| JEF United Chiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.