Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Kawasaki Frontale

42
Won

JEF United Chiba

The model leans Kawasaki Frontale at 50%. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.95, JEF United Chiba 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Kawasaki Frontale won 2 of their last 6; JEF United Chiba won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kawasaki Frontale54%1.87
XDraw24%4.17
2JEF United Chiba22%4.45

Pick: Kawasaki Frontale. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.95 – 1.21
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.0%
  • 219.8%
  • 108.3%
  • 208.1%
  • 316.3%
  • 126.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kawasaki Frontale −0.5
Kawasaki Frontale lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%23%45%
-0.555%45%
055%22%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%14%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.