Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Kawasaki Frontale

22
Lost

Kyoto Sanga FC

The model leans Kawasaki Frontale at 50%. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.86, Kyoto Sanga FC 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Kawasaki Frontale won 2 of their last 6; Kyoto Sanga FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kawasaki Frontale50%1.99
XDraw25%4.05
2Kyoto Sanga FC25%3.99

Pick: Kawasaki Frontale. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.27
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes61%No39%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 219.6%
  • 108.1%
  • 207.5%
  • 126.6%
  • 226.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kawasaki Frontale −0.5
Kawasaki Frontale lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%22%49%
-0.551%49%
051%23%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.