Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Kawasaki Frontale

31
Won

Tochigi SC

The model leans Kawasaki Frontale at 61%. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 2.30, Tochigi SC 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Kawasaki Frontale won 2 of their last 6; Tochigi SC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kawasaki Frontale69%1.46
XDraw20%5.11
2Tochigi SC12%8.48

Pick: Kawasaki Frontale. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.30 – 0.87
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.1%
  • 109.7%
  • 219.7%
  • 308.5%
  • 118.4%
  • 317.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kawasaki Frontale −1.5
Kawasaki Frontale lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.546%54%
-146%23%31%
-0.569%31%
069%18%13%
+0.587%13%
+187%9%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.