Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Tochigi SC

32
Won

Zweigen Kanazawa

The model leans Tochigi SC at 43%. Expected goals: Tochigi SC 1.27, Zweigen Kanazawa 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 59%. Tochigi SC won 2 of their last 6; Zweigen Kanazawa won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tochigi SC46%2.16
XDraw32%3.17
2Zweigen Kanazawa22%4.50

Pick: Tochigi SC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.27 – 0.80
LineOverUnder
1.561%39%
2.534%66%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.9%
  • 1112.8%
  • 0012.5%
  • 2010.2%
  • 0110.1%
  • 218.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tochigi SC −0.5
Tochigi SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%26%53%
-0.547%53%
047%29%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%16%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.