Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Roasso Kumamoto

00
Lost

Tochigi SC

The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 36%. Expected goals: Roasso Kumamoto 1.10, Tochigi SC 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6; Tochigi SC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Roasso Kumamoto38%2.66
XDraw33%3.03
2Tochigi SC29%3.40

Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.10 – 0.95
LineOverUnder
1.561%39%
2.534%66%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes41%No59%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.2%
  • 1113.4%
  • 0012.9%
  • 0112.2%
  • 207.8%
  • 217.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Roasso Kumamoto 0
Roasso Kumamoto lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%23%61%
-0.539%61%
039%30%31%
+0.569%31%
+169%20%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.