Roasso Kumamoto
Tochigi SC
The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 36%. Expected goals: Roasso Kumamoto 1.10, Tochigi SC 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6; Tochigi SC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roasso Kumamoto | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Tochigi SC | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roasso Kumamoto 0| Roasso Kumamoto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.