Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Kochi United SC

02
Won

Roasso Kumamoto

The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 34%. Expected goals: Kochi United SC 0.88, Roasso Kumamoto 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 61%. Kochi United SC won 1 of their last 5; Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kochi United SC29%3.46
XDraw34%2.90
2Roasso Kumamoto37%2.73

Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.02
LineOverUnder
1.556%44%
2.529%71%
3.512%88%
Both teams to scoreYes37%No63%

Most likely scores

  • 0115.3%
  • 0015.0%
  • 1113.4%
  • 1013.2%
  • 027.8%
  • 126.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kochi United SC 0
Kochi United SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%20%70%
-0.530%70%
030%32%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%23%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.