Predictions · J. League 2/3 100 Year Vision League Placement Matches · outside model coverage

SC Sagamihara

30
Won

Roasso Kumamoto

The model leans SC Sagamihara at 40%. Expected goals: SC Sagamihara 1.46, Roasso Kumamoto 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. SC Sagamihara won 3 of their last 6; Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1SC Sagamihara43%2.31
XDraw28%3.52
2Roasso Kumamoto28%3.54

Pick: SC Sagamihara. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.14
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.4%
  • 1010.8%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.4%
  • 207.9%
  • 007.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: SC Sagamihara −0.5
SC Sagamihara lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%23%55%
-0.545%55%
045%26%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%18%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.