SC Sagamihara
Júbilo Iwata
The model leans SC Sagamihara at 40%. Expected goals: SC Sagamihara 1.61, Júbilo Iwata 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. SC Sagamihara won 3 of their last 6; Júbilo Iwata won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Sagamihara | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Júbilo Iwata | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: SC Sagamihara. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Sagamihara −0.5| SC Sagamihara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.