Tochigi City FC
Júbilo Iwata
The model leans Tochigi City FC at 41%. Expected goals: Tochigi City FC 1.58, Júbilo Iwata 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Tochigi City FC won 4 of their last 6; Júbilo Iwata won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tochigi City FC | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Júbilo Iwata | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tochigi City FC. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tochigi City FC −0.5| Tochigi City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.