Roasso Kumamoto
Nagano Parceiro
The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 51%. Expected goals: Roasso Kumamoto 1.42, Nagano Parceiro 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%. Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6; Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roasso Kumamoto | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Nagano Parceiro | 13% | 7.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.1%
- 2–014.2%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roasso Kumamoto −1| Roasso Kumamoto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.