Nagano Parceiro
Renofa Yamaguchi
The model leans Renofa Yamaguchi at 50%. Expected goals: Nagano Parceiro 0.73, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%. Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6; Renofa Yamaguchi won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nagano Parceiro | 18% | 5.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Renofa Yamaguchi | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.73 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.9%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Renofa Yamaguchi −0.5| Nagano Parceiro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.