Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Ryukyu
The model leans Renofa Yamaguchi at 51%. Expected goals: Renofa Yamaguchi 1.73, FC Ryukyu 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Renofa Yamaguchi won 1 of their last 6; FC Ryukyu won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Renofa Yamaguchi | 59% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Ryukyu | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Renofa Yamaguchi −1| Renofa Yamaguchi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.