Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Osaka
The model leans Renofa Yamaguchi at 41%. Expected goals: Renofa Yamaguchi 1.19, FC Osaka 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. Renofa Yamaguchi won 1 of their last 6; FC Osaka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Renofa Yamaguchi | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Osaka | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.0%
- 0–014.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Renofa Yamaguchi −0.5| Renofa Yamaguchi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 30% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.