FC Osaka
FC Ryukyu
The model leans FC Osaka at 42%. Expected goals: FC Osaka 1.13, FC Ryukyu 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. FC Osaka won 2 of their last 6; FC Ryukyu won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Osaka | 45% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Ryukyu | 20% | 4.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Osaka. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.7%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Osaka −0.5| FC Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 32% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.