FC Osaka
Nagano Parceiro
The model leans FC Osaka at 50%. Expected goals: FC Osaka 1.15, Nagano Parceiro 0.50. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 72%. FC Osaka won 2 of their last 6; Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Osaka | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Nagano Parceiro | 15% | 6.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Osaka. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.1%
- 0–019.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 66% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Osaka −0.5| FC Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 13% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.