Kamatamare Sanuki
Nagano Parceiro
The model leans Kamatamare Sanuki at 40%. Expected goals: Kamatamare Sanuki 1.22, Nagano Parceiro 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Kamatamare Sanuki won 1 of their last 5; Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kamatamare Sanuki | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Nagano Parceiro | 24% | 4.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kamatamare Sanuki −0.5| Kamatamare Sanuki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 30% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.