Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Fukushima United

12
Lost

Kamatamare Sanuki

The model leans Fukushima United at 53%. Expected goals: Fukushima United 2.27, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6; Kamatamare Sanuki won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Fukushima United61%1.64
XDraw21%4.75
2Kamatamare Sanuki18%5.62

Pick: Fukushima United. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.27 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.545%55%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 219.7%
  • 118.5%
  • 208.2%
  • 317.3%
  • 107.2%
  • 306.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Fukushima United −1
Fukushima United lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.540%60%
-140%22%38%
-0.562%38%
062%19%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%12%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.