Fukushima United
Kamatamare Sanuki
The model leans Fukushima United at 53%. Expected goals: Fukushima United 2.27, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6; Kamatamare Sanuki won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fukushima United | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Kamatamare Sanuki | 18% | 5.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fukushima United. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.27 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fukushima United −1| Fukushima United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.