Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Yokohama F.Marinos

10
Won

Fukushima United

The model leans Yokohama F.Marinos at 71%. Expected goals: Yokohama F.Marinos 3.63, Fukushima United 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 59%. Yokohama F.Marinos won 3 of their last 6; Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Yokohama F.Marinos85%1.17
XDraw10%10.31
2Fukushima United5%19.38

Pick: Yokohama F.Marinos. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.63 – 0.94
LineOverUnder
1.594%6%
2.583%17%
3.566%34%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 308.4%
  • 317.9%
  • 407.6%
  • 417.1%
  • 206.9%
  • 216.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Yokohama F.Marinos −2
Yokohama F.Marinos lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.570%30%
-170%15%15%
-0.585%15%
085%9%6%
+0.594%6%
+194%4%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.