Fukushima United
Nara Club
The model leans Fukushima United at 46%. Expected goals: Fukushima United 2.26, Nara Club 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%. Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6; Nara Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fukushima United | 48% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Nara Club | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fukushima United. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 64% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fukushima United −0.5| Fukushima United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 20% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 15% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.