Matsumoto Yamaga
Nara Club
The model leans Matsumoto Yamaga at 51%. Expected goals: Matsumoto Yamaga 2.08, Nara Club 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. Matsumoto Yamaga won 0 of their last 5; Nara Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Matsumoto Yamaga | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Nara Club | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.08 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Matsumoto Yamaga −1| Matsumoto Yamaga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.