Giravanz Kitakyushu
Matsumoto Yamaga
The model leans Matsumoto Yamaga at 44%. Expected goals: Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.07, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Giravanz Kitakyushu won 1 of their last 5; Matsumoto Yamaga won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Giravanz Kitakyushu | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Matsumoto Yamaga | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Matsumoto Yamaga −0.5| Giravanz Kitakyushu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.