Kochi United SC
Matsumoto Yamaga
The model leans Matsumoto Yamaga at 40%. Expected goals: Kochi United SC 0.94, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Kochi United SC won 1 of their last 5; Matsumoto Yamaga won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kochi United SC | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Matsumoto Yamaga | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–28.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Matsumoto Yamaga −0.5| Kochi United SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.