Matsumoto Yamaga
Reilac Shiga
The model leans Matsumoto Yamaga at 53%. Expected goals: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.76, Reilac Shiga 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Matsumoto Yamaga won 0 of their last 5; Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Matsumoto Yamaga | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Reilac Shiga | 14% | 7.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.3%
- 3–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Matsumoto Yamaga −1| Matsumoto Yamaga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.