Reilac Shiga
FC Gifu
The model leans FC Gifu at 39%. Expected goals: Reilac Shiga 1.04, FC Gifu 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6; FC Gifu won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Reilac Shiga | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Gifu | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Gifu. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–28.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Gifu −0.5| Reilac Shiga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.