Tochigi City FC
Reilac Shiga
The model leans Tochigi City FC at 53%. Expected goals: Tochigi City FC 1.91, Reilac Shiga 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%. Tochigi City FC won 4 of their last 6; Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tochigi City FC | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Reilac Shiga | 15% | 6.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tochigi City FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.91 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.0%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
- 0–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tochigi City FC −1| Tochigi City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.