Predictions · J. League 2/3 100 Year Vision League Placement Matches · outside model coverage

Tochigi City FC

31
Won

Reilac Shiga

The model leans Tochigi City FC at 53%. Expected goals: Tochigi City FC 1.91, Reilac Shiga 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%. Tochigi City FC won 4 of their last 6; Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tochigi City FC61%1.64
XDraw24%4.22
2Reilac Shiga15%6.55

Pick: Tochigi City FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 0.86
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1012.0%
  • 2011.4%
  • 1110.3%
  • 219.8%
  • 307.3%
  • 006.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tochigi City FC −1
Tochigi City FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.537%63%
-137%25%38%
-0.562%38%
062%22%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%11%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.