Thespa Gunma
Reilac Shiga
The model leans Thespa Gunma at 51%. Expected goals: Thespa Gunma 1.86, Reilac Shiga 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Thespa Gunma won 1 of their last 6; Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thespa Gunma | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Reilac Shiga | 18% | 5.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thespa Gunma. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–010.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.3%
- 3–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thespa Gunma −1| Thespa Gunma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.