Cerezo Osaka
FC Gifu
The model leans Cerezo Osaka at 68%. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 2.70, FC Gifu 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 51%. Cerezo Osaka won 4 of their last 6; FC Gifu won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cerezo Osaka | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.58 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Gifu | 8% | 13.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cerezo Osaka. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.70 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cerezo Osaka −2| Cerezo Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.