Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Cerezo Osaka

31
Won

FC Gifu

The model leans Cerezo Osaka at 68%. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 2.70, FC Gifu 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 51%. Cerezo Osaka won 4 of their last 6; FC Gifu won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cerezo Osaka77%1.30
XDraw15%6.58
2FC Gifu8%13.12

Pick: Cerezo Osaka. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.70 – 0.78
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.546%54%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.3%
  • 3010.1%
  • 218.8%
  • 108.3%
  • 317.9%
  • 406.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cerezo Osaka −2
Cerezo Osaka lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.557%43%
-157%21%22%
-0.578%22%
078%14%8%
+0.592%8%
+192%6%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.