Matsumoto Yamaga
Ehime FC
The model leans Matsumoto Yamaga at 47%. Expected goals: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.49, Ehime FC 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Matsumoto Yamaga won 0 of their last 5; Ehime FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Matsumoto Yamaga | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Ehime FC | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Matsumoto Yamaga −0.5| Matsumoto Yamaga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.