V-Varen Nagasaki
Ehime FC
The model leans V-Varen Nagasaki at 55%. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 1.76, Ehime FC 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 6; Ehime FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1V-Varen Nagasaki | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Ehime FC | 12% | 8.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: V-Varen Nagasaki. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.8%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–09.0%
- 3–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: V-Varen Nagasaki −1| V-Varen Nagasaki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.