Fagiano Okayama FC
V-Varen Nagasaki
The model leans Fagiano Okayama FC at 37%. Expected goals: Fagiano Okayama FC 1.24, V-Varen Nagasaki 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Fagiano Okayama FC won 2 of their last 6; V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fagiano Okayama FC | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2V-Varen Nagasaki | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fagiano Okayama FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fagiano Okayama FC 0| Fagiano Okayama FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.