Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Giravanz Kitakyushu

00
Lost

Kamatamare Sanuki

The model leans Giravanz Kitakyushu at 45%. Expected goals: Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.57, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Giravanz Kitakyushu won 1 of their last 5; Kamatamare Sanuki won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Giravanz Kitakyushu48%2.08
XDraw28%3.62
2Kamatamare Sanuki24%4.11

Pick: Giravanz Kitakyushu. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.57 – 1.05
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.549%51%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.0%
  • 1011.4%
  • 219.4%
  • 208.9%
  • 017.7%
  • 007.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Giravanz Kitakyushu −0.5
Giravanz Kitakyushu lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%24%51%
-0.549%51%
049%25%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%16%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.