Tochigi SC
Giravanz Kitakyushu
The model leans Tochigi SC at 51%. Expected goals: Tochigi SC 1.68, Giravanz Kitakyushu 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Tochigi SC won 2 of their last 6; Giravanz Kitakyushu won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tochigi SC | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Giravanz Kitakyushu | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tochigi SC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tochigi SC −1| Tochigi SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.