Predictions · J. League 3 · outside model coverage

Gainare Tottori

21
Won

Fukushima United

The model leans Gainare Tottori at 43%. Expected goals: Gainare Tottori 1.93, Fukushima United 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. Gainare Tottori won 4 of their last 6; Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Gainare Tottori47%2.14
XDraw24%4.18
2Fukushima United29%3.42

Pick: Gainare Tottori. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.50
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.545%55%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 119.4%
  • 219.0%
  • 127.0%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.3%
  • 206.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Gainare Tottori −0.5
Gainare Tottori lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%21%52%
-0.548%52%
048%22%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%16%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.