Fukushima United
FC Ryukyu
The model leans Fukushima United at 50%. Expected goals: Fukushima United 1.95, FC Ryukyu 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Fukushima United won 0 of their last 6; FC Ryukyu won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fukushima United | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Ryukyu | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fukushima United. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.95 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fukushima United −0.5| Fukushima United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.