Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Yokohama F.Marinos

11
Lost

Kyoto Sanga FC

The model leans Yokohama F.Marinos at 51%. Expected goals: Yokohama F.Marinos 1.94, Kyoto Sanga FC 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Yokohama F.Marinos won 3 of their last 6; Kyoto Sanga FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Yokohama F.Marinos56%1.79
XDraw24%4.17
2Kyoto Sanga FC20%4.97

Pick: Yokohama F.Marinos. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.558%42%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.3%
  • 209.0%
  • 316.4%
  • 305.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Yokohama F.Marinos −1
Yokohama F.Marinos lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%23%43%
-0.557%43%
057%22%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%13%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.