FC Osaka
Ventforet Kofu
The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: FC Osaka 0.65, Ventforet Kofu 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 73%. FC Osaka won 2 of their last 6; Ventforet Kofu won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Osaka | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Ventforet Kofu | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes25% | No75% |
Most likely scores
- 0–024.5%
- 0–118.6%
- 1–015.8%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–05.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Osaka 0| FC Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 20% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 38% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 24% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.