Ventforet Kofu
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
The model leans Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 38%. Expected goals: Ventforet Kofu 0.79, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. Ventforet Kofu won 2 of their last 6; Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ventforet Kofu | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.7%
- 0–015.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ventforet Kofu 0| Ventforet Kofu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 18% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.