Predictions · J. League 2/3 100 Year Vision League Playoff · outside model coverage

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

21
Won

Ventforet Kofu

The model leans Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 50%. Expected goals: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.29, Ventforet Kofu 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%. Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 of their last 6; Ventforet Kofu won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tegevajaro Miyazaki51%1.96
XDraw32%3.17
2Ventforet Kofu17%5.76

Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.29 – 0.64
LineOverUnder
1.558%42%
2.531%69%
3.513%87%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.6%
  • 0014.4%
  • 2012.1%
  • 1112.0%
  • 019.3%
  • 217.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tegevajaro Miyazaki −0.5
Tegevajaro Miyazaki lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%28%48%
-0.552%48%
052%29%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%14%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.