Predictions · League Cup · outside model coverage

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

12
Lost

Kataller Toyama

The model leans Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 53%. Expected goals: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2.00, Kataller Toyama 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 of their last 6; Kataller Toyama won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tegevajaro Miyazaki60%1.68
XDraw23%4.32
2Kataller Toyama17%5.80

Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.00 – 1.00
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1010.0%
  • 2010.0%
  • 1110.0%
  • 2110.0%
  • 306.6%
  • 316.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tegevajaro Miyazaki −1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.537%63%
-137%24%39%
-0.561%39%
061%21%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%12%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.