Vegalta Sendai
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
The model leans Vegalta Sendai at 38%. Expected goals: Vegalta Sendai 1.22, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Vegalta Sendai won 2 of their last 6; Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vegalta Sendai | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vegalta Sendai. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–08.3%
- 2–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vegalta Sendai 0| Vegalta Sendai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.