Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Osaka
The model leans Shimizu S-Pulse at 50%. Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 1.23, FC Osaka 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%. Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 6; FC Osaka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shimizu S-Pulse | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Osaka | 14% | 7.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Shimizu S-Pulse. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 0.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.0%
- 0–017.9%
- 2–013.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Shimizu S-Pulse −0.5| Shimizu S-Pulse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 29% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 12% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.