Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-Pulse
The model leans Nagoya Grampus at 45%. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.56, Shimizu S-Pulse 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Nagoya Grampus won 2 of their last 6; Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nagoya Grampus | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Shimizu S-Pulse | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nagoya Grampus. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.56 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nagoya Grampus −0.5| Nagoya Grampus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.