Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
The model leans Nagoya Grampus at 38%. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.74, Gamba Osaka 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Nagoya Grampus won 2 of their last 6; Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nagoya Grampus | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Gamba Osaka | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nagoya Grampus. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
- 0–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nagoya Grampus 0| Nagoya Grampus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.